多代理系统。

你可以回到分布式人工智能的根源，我认为仍然可以安全地呆在80年代。

多智能体系统有很多组成部分，有很多研究涉及语言行为或合作，所以很难指出并说“看，这里，这是不同的，创新的和重要的!”但我还是会试试的。: -)

我认为信念-欲望-意图模型尤其值得注意。智能体在内部构建了世界的模型。他们有特定的愿望或目标，并制定计划，如何与他们所知道的世界互动，以实现这些目标，从而形成意图。

或者打个比方，电影《创》(Tron)中的角色对他们周围的世界是如何运作的有一定的了解。他们不了解整个世界，他们可能会对世界的某些部分产生误解。但他们有愿望和目标，他们提出了进一步实现目标的计划。如果你看过《创》，我相信你会有类似的感觉。

它还没有对计算机产生太大的影响。但是，你看，那些对计算机产生影响的东西似乎需要几十年的时间。参见:OOP, GC，字节码编译。

更好的用户界面。

今天的用户界面仍然很糟糕。我指的不是小的方面，而是大的、基本的方面。我不禁注意到，即使是最好的程序也仍然有一些接口，这些接口要么极其复杂，要么需要以其他方式进行大量的抽象思考，而且无法达到传统的非软件工具的易用性。

诚然，这是由于软件可以比传统工具做更多的事情。但这不是接受现状的理由。此外，大多数软件都做得不好。

In general, applications still lack a certain “just works” feeling are too much oriented by what can be done, rather than what should be done. One point that has been raised time and again, and that is still not solved, is the point of saving. Applications crash, destroying hours of work. I have the habit of pressing Ctrl+S every few seconds (of course, this no longer works in web applications). Why do I have to do this? It's mind-numbingly stupid. This is clearly a task for automation. Of course, the application also has to save a diff for every modification I make (basically an infinite undo list) in case I make an error.

解决这个问题其实并不难。在每个应用程序中都很难实现它，因为没有好的API可以做到这一点。编程工具和库必须显著改进，才能在所有平台和程序上轻松实现这些工作，适用于所有具有任意备份存储且不需要用户交互的文件格式。但在我们最终开始编写“好的”应用程序而不仅仅是足够的应用程序之前，这是必要的一步。

I believe that Apple currently approximates the “just works” feeling best in some regards. Take for example their newest version of iPhoto which features a face recognition that automatically groups photos by people appearing in them. That is a classical task that the user does not want to do manually and doesn't understand why the computer doesn't do it automatically. And even iPhoto is still a very long way from a good UI, since said feature still requires ultimate confirmation by the user (for each photo!), since the face recognition engine isn't perfect.

有一件事让我吃惊，那就是简陋的电子表格。非程序员的人用一个简单的公式网格就可以为现实世界的问题构建狂野而奇妙的解决方案。在桌面应用程序中复制他们的努力通常需要比编写电子表格多10到100倍的时间，最终的应用程序通常更难使用，充满bug !

我相信电子表格成功的关键是自动依赖分析。如果电子表格的用户被迫使用观察者模式，他们就没有机会得到正确的结果。

因此，最大的进步是自动依赖分析。现在，为什么没有任何现代平台(Java， .Net, Web Services)将其构建到系统的核心中呢?特别是在一个通过并行化扩展的时代——依赖关系图导致并行重新计算变得微不足道。

编辑:我刚查过。VisiCalc发布于1979年——让我们假设它是1980年后的发明。

Edit2:似乎艾伦已经注意到了电子表格——如果让他来这个论坛的问题是正确的!

除了硬件创新之外，我倾向于发现太阳底下几乎没有新的东西。大多数真正伟大的想法都可以追溯到冯·诺依曼和艾伦·图灵这样的人。

如今，许多被贴上“技术”标签的东西实际上只是某人编写的程序或库，或者是用新的隐喻、首字母缩写或品牌名称对旧思想进行翻新。

我不知道是否有人已经回答了，“机器学习”作为一个重要的新发展，正在迅速发展。智能垃圾邮件过滤、股市预测、机器人等智能机器……

也许，机器智能会是下一个大事件。

当然，1980年以前是施乐PARC的辉煌时期。在图形用户界面、鼠标、激光打印机、互联网和个人电脑刚刚诞生的时候。(鉴于我太年轻了，不可能活在那个年代，而你几乎在努力发明所有这些东西，关于1980年的事情，我不能告诉你任何你不知道的事情，所以我们继续吧。)

The thing is, though, that the pre-1980 days were a lot more vibrant in terms of truly disruptive new technologies. That's the way it is with any new field -- hwo many game-changing technology advances have you seen in railroads in the past 100 years? How many have you seen in lightbulbs? In the printing press? Once something ignites a hype in the right circles, there is an explosive period of invention, followed by a long period of maturing. After that, you're not going to see the same kind of completely radical changes again UNLESS the basic circumstances change.

幸运的是，这可能会发生在一些领域，而且已经发生在其他一些领域:

Mobility - smart phones bring computing to a truly portable platform, which will soon include location-based services and proximity-based ad-hoc networks. It's a completely new paradigm that's potentially as game-changing as the GUI has been The WWW (HTTP, HTML and DNS) has already been mentioned and is an obvious addition to the list, since it is enabling global, inexpensive, mainstream rich communication across the globe - all thanks to a computing platform On the interface side, both touch, multitouch (Jeff Han comes to mind) and the Wiimote need mentioning. Currently, they are basically curiosities, but so were the early GUIs. OOP design patterns -- higher level solutions as best practices to hard problems. Depending on your definition of 'computing', it may or may not belong on the list, but if you count OOP as a significant advance pre-1980 (I certainly do), I think design patterns and the GoF deserve a mention too Google's PageRank and MapReduce algorithms - I am pleased to notice I wasn't the first to mention them, and seriously --- where would the world be without the principles of both of them? I vividly remember what the world looked like before them, and suffice it to say Google really IS my friend. Non-volatile memory -- it's on the hardware side, but it is going to play a significant role in the future of computing - making bootup times a thing of the past, for example, and enabling us to use computers in entirely new ways Semantic (natural language) search / analysis / classification / translation... We're not quite there yet, but companies like Powerset give the impression that we're on the brink. On that note, intelligent HTMs should be on this list as well. I am yet another believer in Jeff Hawkins' model and approach, and if it works, it will mean a complete redefinition of what computers can do, what it means to be human, and where the world can go from here. Creating a real intelligence in that way (synthetically) would be bigger than anything the human race has accomplished before. GNU + Linux 3D printing / rapid prototyping (and, in time, manufacturing) P2P (which also lead to VoIP etc.) E-ink, once the technologies mature a bit more RFID might belong on the list, but the verdict is still out on that one Quantum Computing is the most obvious element on the list, except we still haven't been able to get enough qubits to play along. However, my friends in the field tell me there's incredible progress going on even as we speak, so I'm holding my breath for that one. And finally, I want to mention a personal favourite: distributed intelligence, or its other name: artificial artificial intelligence. The idea of connecting a huge number of people in a network and allowing them access to the combined minds of everyone else through some form of question answering interface. It's been done a number of times recently, with Yahoo Answers, Askville, Amazon Mechanical Turk, and so on, but in my mind, those are all missing the mark by a LOT... much like the many implementations of distributed hypertext that came before Tim Berners-Lee's HTML, or the many web crawlers before Google. Seriously -- someone needs to build an search interface into 'the hive mind' to blow everyone else out of the water. IMHO - it is only a matter of time.