回答“为什么新思想会消亡”和“如何应对”这两个问题?

I suspect a lot of the lack of progress is due to the massive influx of capital and entrenched wealth in the industry. Sounds counterintuitive, but I think it's become conventional wisdom that any new idea gets one shot; if it doesn't make it at the first try, it can't come back. It gets bought by someone with entrenched interests, or just FAILs, and the energy is gone. A couple examples are tablet computers, and integrated office software. The Newton and several others had real potential, but ended up (through competitive attrition and bad judgment) squandering their birthrights, killing whole categories. (I was especially fond of Ashton Tate's Framework; but I'm still stuck with Word and Excel).

怎么办呢?首先想到的是Wm。莎士比亚的建议:“让我们杀了所有的律师。”但恐怕他们现在装备太精良了。实际上，我认为最好的选择是找到某种开源计划。它们似乎比其他选择更好地保持可访问性和增量改进。但是这个行业已经变得足够大了，所以某种有机的合作机制是必要的。

I also think that there's a dynamic that says that the entrenched interests (especially platforms) require a substantial amount of change - churn - to justify continuing revenue streams; and this absorbs a lot of creative energy that could have been spent in better ways. Look how much time we spend treading water with the newest iteration from Microsoft or Sun or Linux or Firefox, making changes to systems that for the most part work fine already. It's not because they are evil, it's just built into the industry. There's no such thing as Stable Equilibrium; all the feedback mechanisms are positive, favoring change over stability. (Did you ever see a feature withdrawn, or a change retracted?)

关于SO的另一个讨论线索是臭鼬工厂综合症(参考:Geoffrey Moore):在大型组织中，真正的创新几乎总是(90%以上)出现在自发出现的未经授权的项目中，这些项目完全由个人或小团队的主动性推动(通常会受到正式的管理等级的反对)。所以:质疑权威，反抗体制。

我能想到的1980年还不存在的活动是跨脱节域的全局搜索。比如谷歌和一个(非常少的)前辈——都是在1980年之后。与语法标记的约定相关联，我认为这是一个“新想法”;但我认为这也只是刚刚开始;头顶上有很大的空间可以建房子。

有一种设备有可能加速这种已经闪电般的速度，它将很快出现，即相机/地理信息系统/电话/网络的组合。它首次创造了在四维空间中自动收集、分类和聚合数据点的机会。甚至这类数据的繁琐手工收集也在萌芽;想象一下，当它默认执行时。

无论好坏。

DOS。我不是DOS的粉丝，但多亏了DOS和IBM-PC电脑才有了今天的样子(不管是好是坏)。

过去30年里处理器速度的大幅提升不容忽视。各种聪明的想法，如流水线和抢占式分支，以及处理器设计电子方面的改进，意味着今天的程序员可以更多地担心程序的设计和可维护性，而不必担心计算时钟周期。

运动传感器在游戏中的兴起，使传统的游戏操纵杆消失，让用户非常接近游戏本身。这与我们不断变化的城市景观和生活方式相辅相成，因为我们的身体活动有限。游戏的发展肯定会让人在做喜欢的事情时至少进行一些体育活动。这绝对比在健身房做同样单调的练习要好。

传感器网络:非常微小的(纳米级)计算机形成自组织p2p网络并传输“传感”信息。

3D打印:物理对象的《星际迷航》复制器(还没有Early Grey茶)。

DNA计算:针对某些类型问题的大规模并行计算。